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Predictors of the first marriage longevity of divorced women with children
Mahsa Saadati
Department of Statistical Methods and Demographic Modelling, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran , mahsa.saadati@gmail.com
Abstract:   (1996 Views)

Background: Divorce, as an important social harm, is associated with anxiety, fear, and feelings of helplessness and loneliness, leading to changes in behavior, financial status, and lifestyle, has always been the focus of investigators and policymakers. Since women are more affected by divorce than men, and children also play a decisive role in divorce decisions, the purpose of this article was to study the marital durability of women with children based on selected covariates.
Methods: The current study is a secondary analysis of the divorce survey data conducted by the National Organization for Civil Registration in 2016-2017. Information was collected through questionnaires from 756 women who had filed for divorce at divorce registration offices. An unshared frailty survival model was applied for analyzing this data using SAS software.
Results: In this study, 29.5%, 52.9%, and 11.8% of women had 1, 2, and 3 or more children, and the first marriage longevity (FML) medians among these women were 150.45, 221.13, and 343.20 months, respectively. An unshared Gamma frailty Weibull model was selected as the final model for analyzing the data. The variables of the human development index (AF=0.312), women’s and their spouses’ marriage age (AF=0.985, 0.992), the first child’s age (AF=0.938), educational years (AF=1.121), number of children (AF=1.03), number of spouse's siblings (AF=1.018), father's survival status (AF=0.963), and child’s custody status (AF=1.093) were found to significantly affect the FML of these women.
Conclusion: Based on the results, children can play positive or negative roles in women’s divorce; as the number of children increased, women’s FML also increased. On the other hand, as the age of women’s first child increased, the divorce risk also increased.
 

Keywords: First Marriage Longevity, Child, Women, Frailty Survival Models
     
Type of Article: Original article | Subject: Bio-statistics
Received: 2025/04/6 | Accepted: 2025/10/1
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